On the structural improvement of paper industry fr

2022-07-29
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Industry outlook of the paper industry: looking at the structural improvement of the paper industry

release date: Source: Bisheng editor in chief: China Packaging page views: 484 copyright and disclaimer

core tips: the paper industry is an industry that manufactures various types of paper products. The paper industry is an important industry closely related to the development of the national economy. It involves forestry, agriculture, machinery manufacturing, chemical industry, electrical automation, transportation Environmental protection and other industries. At the same time, the paper industry is also a technology intensive, complex process, large resource consumption and pollutant producing industry. The product range of the industry includes pulp, machine-made paper and paperboard, processed paper, handmade paper, etc

[China Packaging News] the paper industry is an industry that manufactures various types of paper products. The paper industry is an important industry closely related to the development of the national economy. It involves forestry, agriculture, machinery manufacturing, chemical industry, electrical automation, transportation, environmental protection and other industries. At the same time, the paper industry is also a technology intensive, complex process, large resource consumption and pollutant producing industry. The range of industrial products includes pulp, machine-made paper and paperboard, and processing, which has achieved remarkable results, such as paper, handmade paper, etc

structural improvement is underestimated

last week, we communicated with more than 20 institutional investors about buying opportunities for structural improvement of packaging paper (corrugated paper and box board paper). About 60% of the investors are skeptical about the improvement of the supply and demand structure of the industry, and believe that the recent stock price rise may be related to the one-time inventory replenishment of downstream industries. About 20% of investors believe that the recently announced paper price rise will not be successfully implemented due to the current weak macro-economy. Interestingly, overseas investors are generally more conservative and cautious than mainland investors in their views on the improvement of the fundamentals of packaging paper in recent months

more signals support the view of industry supply shortage

as the strict implementation of environmental protection in Guangdong has led to the inflow of corrugated paper and box board products in East China and central China, we have seen that the paper price in East China and central China has also increased by 50 yuan per ton after the labor day. However, this has not slowed down the supply shortage of packaging paper in South China. In the recent week, the supply bottleneck of packaging paper in Guangdong has intensified. Extruded polystyrene board not only keeps warm, but also further improves the competitiveness of the leading market in the industry, raising prices for the fourth time this year. We believe that these abnormal phenomena in the traditional off-season are an early signal for the improvement of the fundamentals of the packaging paper industry, which will be accompanied by the continuous and long-term rise in the price of packaging paper for better production of machines

structural improvement of supply-demand relationship in the industry

the concentration of China's carton board industry is very scattered, with at least 30% of the market share scattered among more than 1000 small factories with a daily production capacity of less than 0.1 million tons. Since the Chinese government has begun to implement the most stringent environmental protection measures in history, we expect that about 2.8/2.5 million tons of small capacity will be eliminated in 2015 and 2016 respectively, which is significantly higher than the 1.5/1.1 million tons eliminated in 2013/2014. We believe that the net capacity growth of corrugated paper and box board in 2015 and 2016 will be -0.5% and -0.3%. At the same time, we believe that the demand of the packaging paper market will grow moderately by about 3.0% and 3.5% in 2015/2016, mainly driven by the rapid development of e-commerce. At the same time, the demand for packaging paper is not directly related to China's gradually slowing down investment in fixed assets. To sum up, we believe that the capacity utilization rate of the industry will increase from 75% and 74% in 2013/2014 to 77% and 80% in 2015/2016. We reiterate that we are optimistic about the packaging paper industry, mainly because the gradual implementation of the new environmental protection law will bring about industry integration and the long-term rise in paper prices brought about by the increase of entry threshold

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